Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current price trends. This report is designed to provide investors with valuable insights to support informed decision-making and effective market navigation.
Gold remains under modest bearish pressure due to profit booking after hitting a record high earlier this week. However, the metal managed to limit its losses following a sharp rise in U.S. Jobless Claims, which weighed on the U.S. Dollar.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August indicated persistent inflation. Annual CPI came in at 2.9% and core CPI at 3.1%, both roughly in line with expectations. However, the monthly increase was 0.4%, above the forecasted 0.3% and previous reading of 0.2%, indicating inflationary pressures remain sticky.
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 6 jumped to 263K—well above the previous 236K and expectations of 235K—signaling potential softness in the labor market.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave interest rates unchanged following its September policy meeting, providing little surprise to markets.
From a technical standpoint, Gold’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory (currently at 90), suggesting the need for consolidation or a short-term pullback before any continued upside.
Key support levels:
Immediate support: $3,600
Next support: $3,580 (weekly low)
Further downside: $3,560, with potential extension towards $3,510 (last Thursday’s low)
Resistance levels:
Immediate resistance: $3,640–$3,645 zone
All-time high: $3,675
Breakout target: $3,700 (psychological resistance)
The short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 78, also indicating overbought conditions. While bullish momentum remains intact, traders may exercise caution as the broader setup suggests limited upside in the near term unless strong follow-through buying emerges.
Silver continued its strong 2025 rally on Thursday, breaking above the previous high of $41.67 and surpassing the key $42.00 level. The uptrend remains intact, characterized by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows since the August bottom.
Support Levels:
Immediate support: $41.70
Additional support: $41.45 and $41.11 (minor levels)
Silver remains well above its rising 50-day moving average, which reinforces the bullish market structure. As long as the price holds above the $42.00 threshold, the next major upside target lies at $42.68.
Momentum Indicators:
Stochastics Oscillator: 92 (overbought territory)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 71 (bullish but nearing overbought conditions)
Overall, momentum favors the bulls, though overbought indicators suggest the potential for short-term consolidation before further gains.
Stochastic Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specified period. Readings above 80 signal overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures the speed and magnitude of recent price movements to assess potential overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 indicates overbought territory; below 30 signals oversold.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through a combination of technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective, equipping investors with the insights needed to navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater confidence and clarity.