Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current price movements. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights they need to navigate the precious metals landscape with confidence.
Gold prices are seeing modest buying interest, supported by ongoing weakness in the U.S. Dollar. However, optimism around the Israel-Iran truce is capping further upside, as reduced geopolitical tensions ease safe-haven demand.
While the soft USD typically supports gold, its recovery remains limited due to recent hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who pushed back against market expectations of a July rate cut during his two-day congressional testimony.
Looking ahead, traders are turning their attention to upcoming U.S. economic data—including Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales—for near-term trading cues. However, the market’s next decisive move may hinge on Friday’s PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
On the daily chart, gold is currently holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,325, which is acting as a key support level. However, upside momentum appears constrained by the 21-day SMA at $3,350.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 50.20, indicating a neutral stance and signaling potential for movement in either direction.
The Stochastics Oscillator stands at 48, reflecting a lack of strong short-term momentum.
A close below the 50-day SMA ($3,325) may expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April rally at $3,297.
A sustained break below that level could pave the way for a deeper drop toward $3,275, and then the 50% Fibonacci level at $3,245.
A strong move above the 21-day SMA ($3,350) is needed to confirm a recovery.
The next key resistance lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $3,372, followed by the psychological barrier at $3,400.
Overall, gold remains in a consolidation phase, with traders awaiting stronger catalysts—most notably the upcoming PCE data—to determine its next significant directional move.
Silver prices edged higher to around $36.35 in early Asian trading on Thursday, supported by a combination of fundamental and technical factors.
On the macro front, political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from former President Trump’s recent criticisms, is beginning to weigh on the U.S. Dollar, offering a tailwind for silver. Additionally, rising industrial demand continues to lend fundamental support to the metal, reinforcing its dual role as both a monetary and industrial asset.
Market participants are now looking ahead to key economic data, particularly the final U.S. Q1 GDP growth figures and upcoming Fed commentary later today, which could influence short-term sentiment and price direction.
Momentum indicators remain in bullish territory, signaling further upside potential:
The Stochastics Oscillator stands at 74, suggesting the metal is approaching overbought levels but still maintaining upward momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 63, indicating bullish sentiment without entering extreme conditions.
A sustained break above the current level could open the path toward testing the $36.70–$37.00 resistance zone, last seen near multi-year highs. However, traders should remain cautious ahead of key U.S. data releases, which could trigger short-term volatility.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the fast-moving and ever-evolving world of bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making confident, well-timed investment decisions. This report is crafted to offer a balanced perspective, helping investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with clarity, insight, and strategic foresight.