Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with the insights they need to navigate these markets with confidence.
Gold prices are staging a modest rebound from monthly lows early Monday, supported by broad-based weakness in the US Dollar. Despite this recovery, gold closed last week below key support levels, signaling that further downside risks remain.
Investor sentiment remains cautious amid renewed concerns over US trade negotiations, particularly with Japan, as the July 4 deadline approaches. However, tensions between the US and China may ease slightly following an agreement on rare earth mineral and magnet shipments, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
This week, traders will closely monitor developments in trade talks, alongside a series of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. Key economic data, including Tuesday’s US JOLTS Job Openings and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal, are also expected to provide direction.
Gold (XAU/USD) broke below the lower boundary of a short-term ascending channel, triggering a bearish signal. Still, neutral oscillators on both the daily and 4-hour charts, along with a failure to firmly breach the $3,300 level, suggest a cautious approach is warranted.
A decisive break and sustained selling below $3,300 could pave the way for further declines toward the $3,245 zone. If this level is breached, downside momentum may extend to the $3,220–$3,200 horizontal support range.
On the upside, any rebound is likely to face selling pressure near the $3,337–$3,372 resistance region. Only a sustained move above this zone could open the door for a retest of the $3,400 psychological barrier.
From an indicator standpoint, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 18 (approaching oversold territory), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, reflecting neutral-to-bearish momentum.
Silver prices are holding steady above the $36.00 level, supported by sustained industrial demand and weakness in the US Dollar. The pressure on the Dollar intensified following fresh criticism of the Federal Reserve by former President Trump, which has raised concerns about the central bank’s independence and credibility.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, the gold/silver ratio has retreated below the 91.00 mark, signaling relatively stronger demand for silver compared to gold.
From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators suggest room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating moderately bullish momentum, while the short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 45—neither overbought nor oversold—leaving space for continued gains.
As long as silver maintains a solid base above $36.00, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. A sustained move above immediate resistance levels could open the door for a test of higher targets in the short term.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through a combination of technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decision-making. This report aims to offer a well-rounded perspective to help investors effectively navigate the complexities of trading gold and silver.