Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. Our report is designed to equip investors with the insights needed to navigate these markets confidently and effectively.
Gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and weakening demand for safe-haven assets. Friday’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders report showed a 9.3% decline in June, which was better than the expected 10.8% drop but marked a sharp reversal from May’s 16.5% surge. This report, which tracks new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods such as vehicles and machinery, serves as a key indicator of business investment and overall economic momentum.
Despite the headline being less negative than forecasted, the underlying weakness highlights ongoing concerns about slowing growth. However, with improving risk appetite, stable equity markets, and market focus on upcoming central bank decisions and trade negotiations, this softer data did not significantly alter sentiment or boost safe-haven demand for gold.
Gold faces its third consecutive day of negative pressure. An overnight rebound on the 4-hour chart stalled near the $3,345 level (day high). The immediate strong resistance lies in the $3,362–$3,384 range; a break above this could trigger short-covering and potentially push gold prices back toward the $3,400 mark.
On the downside, the $3,325–$3,300 range may continue to act as support, followed by trend-channel support near $3,271. Technical indicators show the short-term Stochastics Oscillator at 42 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47, indicating neutral momentum with room to move in either direction.
Silver prices have declined for a second consecutive session, pressured by uncertainty surrounding future trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners. The potential for new deals is weighing on safe-haven demand, further impacting silver’s appeal.
Additionally, reports indicate that the U.S. and the European Union are close to agreeing on a 15% tariff on EU goods, adding to market caution. Sentiment toward silver as a safe-haven asset may also weaken as concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence begin to ease.
From a technical perspective, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 62, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, indicating mildly bullish momentum but no overbought conditions.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic world of bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with confidence.