Today’s analysis offers a detailed overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. This report is designed to help investors make informed decisions and navigate the markets with confidence.
The ADP Employment Change report for July showed that the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs — well above expectations of a 78,000 increase and a strong rebound from June’s revised decline of 33,000. Additionally, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2 2025, recovering from a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding forecasts of a 2.4% rise, according to preliminary estimates.
As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. However, market attention is shifting toward the Fed’s forward guidance. The CME FedWatch Tool now places the probability of a rate cut by September at around 65%. A dovish tone from the Fed could weigh on the U.S. dollar and real yields, potentially supporting further upside for XAU/USD. On the other hand, if the Fed pushes back against market expectations and signals that rate cuts are not imminent, gold may struggle to break out of its current range and could face downward pressure.
Gold is approaching a key confluence zone on the daily chart, between the 50-day Moving Average at $3,324 and the psychological $3,300 level. The broader trend remains bullish, supported by a rising trendline from the March lows. However, short-term momentum has weakened, indicating market indecision as traders await the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday.
A breakout above $3,400 could open the door to further gains, confirming a bullish continuation. Conversely, a breakdown below current support levels may expose the 100-day Moving Average near $3,233. The Stochastics Oscillator is currently at 20, signaling oversold conditions, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42, reflecting subdued momentum.
Silver prices extended losses for the second consecutive session, weighed down by uncertainty surrounding future trade agreements between the U.S. and key global partners. The prospect of new trade deals is reducing safe-haven demand, which typically supports silver in times of geopolitical or economic tension.
In addition, developments between the European Union and the United States — particularly the potential implementation of 15% U.S. tariffs on EU goods — have added to market caution. At the same time, easing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence may further dampen silver’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
From a technical perspective, short-term momentum remains weak. The Stochastics Oscillator is at 24, suggesting the market is nearing oversold territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, indicating subdued buying pressure without being extreme.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and ever-changing landscape of the bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective, helping investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater clarity and confidence.