Today’s analysis offers a thorough examination of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. Our report is designed to provide investors with the insights necessary to navigate these markets with confidence.
Markets remain risk-averse as a global trade war appears increasingly likely. US President Donald Trump has confirmed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, effective Tuesday, and has already signed an order to raise tariffs on China to 20%. In retaliation, China’s Commerce Ministry and the Canadian Prime Minister’s office have announced counter-tariffs on the US, escalating tensions and potentially leading to a full-scale trade war. Furthermore, the risk of a US recession has grown, fueled by rising concerns over inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs and declining investor confidence. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker has dropped to -2.8%, following a sharp 5% decline in just two business days. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February, down from 50.9 and below the expected 50.8, primarily due to a significant drop in new orders, which plunged from 55.1 to 48.6.
The daily chart reveals that gold prices have stalled near the $2,900 level. A more sustained recovery is likely to gain momentum only if prices close above this level on a daily candlestick basis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped slightly but remains above the 50 level, indicating that the bullish bias is still intact. If $2,900 is cleared, traders will likely focus on the February 26 high of $2,930. The next key resistance lies at the all-time high of $2,956. Should sellers regain control, immediate support is seen at the psychological $2,850 level, followed by the $2,835 demand zone. A further decline would bring the $2,800 level into focus. The Stochastic Oscillator stands at 40, while the RSI is at 55.
Silver declined last week, breaking through strong support in the $31.50 – $31.75 range, and is now attempting to stabilize above the $31.00 level. The close on Friday will be key for determining the trend on the weekly charts. The short-term Stochastic Oscillator is at 30, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.
In the dynamic and ever-changing bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. Our report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading.