Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting both fundamental and technical drivers behind current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with the insights they need to navigate these markets confidently and effectively.
Gold prices faced heavy selling for the third consecutive day, pressured by a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and China, coupled with a modest uptick in the U.S. Dollar (USD), have weighed on the precious metal. However, aggressive market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may limit the USD’s upside and help contain losses for XAU/USD.
The USD continued to recover, buoyed by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who mentioned the “potential” for trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, and expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with China. Markets largely dismissed the Senate’s rejection of a bipartisan measure aimed at blocking Trump’s tariffs, as well as earlier remarks from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noting the absence of official talks with China.
Gold briefly surged above $3,300 following the release of U.S. GDP and inflation data but failed to sustain gains after Trump’s conciliatory tone softened market reactions to the disappointing GDP figures.
Gold has extended its downward movement, breaking below a rising channel that had been in place for three weeks—confirmation of this break came on Wednesday. The price settled decisively below the trendline support at $3,351, signaling further potential downside.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined, now hovering near the neutral 53.50 mark. Although still above 50, which suggests ongoing bullish momentum, the indicator reflects waning strength. A critical support level lies at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,230. Holding above this level on a daily close is essential for any potential rebound.
If support at $3,230 holds, gold could aim to retest the former channel support—now acting as resistance—around $3,315. The first major hurdle on the upside remains at $3,328, which was the previous session’s high.
Conversely, a sustained break below $3,230 could open the door to a deeper correction toward the psychological $3,150 level. Below that, the next key support would be the 50-day SMA at $3,081.
The Stochastics Oscillator currently stands at 33, indicating near-term weakness, while the RSI at 53 suggests a cautious but not entirely bearish momentum.
Silver (XAG/USD) remains under pressure, with the ongoing decline threatening to extend further. The next key support is seen at $31.70, with a potential drop toward the $31.55–$31.50 region. A decisive break below these levels could lead to a move toward sub-$31.00 territory, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned. This long-term SMA is expected to act as a strong near-term base. However, if broken convincingly, it may open the door for a deeper decline toward the $30.00 psychological level, with intermediate support around the $30.55–$30.50 zone.
On the upside, the previous support at the 100-hour SMA, currently located near $32.35, now acts as the first immediate resistance. Beyond that, additional hurdles lie at $32.55 and the $32.75–$32.80 supply zone, followed closely by the $33.00 level.
A sustained break above $33.00 could trigger a short-covering rally, potentially propelling silver toward the strong resistance at $33.70. A firm move beyond this level would likely negate the current bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls.
As for momentum indicators, the Stochastics Oscillator stands at 56, indicating mild bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45, suggesting a slight bearish bias in the short term.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through a combination of technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decision-making. This report aims to deliver a balanced perspective, equipping investors with the insights needed to confidently navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading.