Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting key fundamental and technical drivers behind current trends. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights needed to navigate these markets with confidence.
Gold prices are under pressure as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July have diminished. The U.S. dollar remains firm, hovering near a two-week high, which is adding to gold’s bearish tone. While trade tensions and tariff-related uncertainties continue to weigh on investor sentiment, they have not provided meaningful support for XAU/USD bulls.
Investor focus now shifts to the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday, as markets seek fresh clues on the timing of the next potential rate cut amid the ongoing uncertainty. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to 61%, down from around 73% just a week ago.
Gold broke below its recent trading range, closing under the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,322 on Tuesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 49, below the neutral 50 mark, signaling a shift in momentum in favor of the bears.
A decisive move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally, located at $3,297, would confirm further downside potential, opening the path toward the monthly low at $3,250. The 50% Fibonacci level at $3,232 is seen as the final key support for buyers.
On the flip side, recovery attempts must first clear the 21-day SMA at $3,346. Further resistance lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,377, with the next major hurdle at the psychological $3,400 level.
RSI (14-day): 49 (bearish bias)
Stochastic Oscillator (short-term): 61 (neutral-to-bearish)
Silver prices are on the rise, supported by increased safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. Renewed concerns were sparked by President Trump’s latest tariff announcements, which detail individual rates ranging from 20% to 50% on eight countries, set to take effect on August 1.
At the same time, a weaker U.S. dollar is boosting demand for the dollar-denominated metal, further supporting the upside in silver prices.
From a technical perspective, momentum indicators reflect a modest bullish bias:
Stochastic Oscillator (short-term): 71 (approaching overbought territory)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 55 (slightly bullish)
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly shifting bullion markets, combining technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making informed investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater clarity and confidence.