Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current trends. This report is designed to equip investors with actionable insights to navigate these markets with confidence and clarity.
Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on its intraday gains toward the $3,360 area, although it maintains a modest positive bias through the first half of Wednesday’s European session. The U.S. Dollar has weakened to a two-week low amid growing market consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates in September.
On the geopolitical front, sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday extending the tariff truce with China for another three months. This move helped ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, supporting risk appetite. Market optimism is further bolstered by hopes that Friday’s upcoming U.S.-Russia summit could increase prospects for ending the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
Looking ahead, investor focus will shift to key U.S. economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. However, despite the improving risk tone and weaker dollar, the mixed fundamental environment warrants caution before expecting a sustained bullish move in gold.
From a technical standpoint, gold has been consolidating in a narrow range since the start of the week, with the price action likely representing a bearish consolidation phase following a sharp retreat from levels above $3,400.
Negative momentum on both hourly and daily oscillators suggests the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside. Key support lies around the $3,243–$3,242 zone, marked by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A decisive break below this level could clear the path for a drop toward the $3,300 psychological level.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $3,360, with further gains potentially pushing the pair toward $3,380 and the $3,400 level. A break above last week’s swing high around $3,409–$3,410 would act as a fresh bullish trigger, exposing the next hurdles near $3,422–$3,423 and $3,434–$3,435. Sustained buying beyond those levels could set the stage for a test of the $3,500 all-time high reached in April.
Indicators:
Stochastics Oscillator: 60 (Neutral-Bullish)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 50 (Neutral)
Silver (XAG/USD) is experiencing a modest pullback after reaching a nearly three-week high during Thursday’s Asian session. The metal is currently trading slightly above the mid-$38.00s, up around 0.10% on the day.
From a technical standpoint, the dip appears to be driven by profit-taking, as the 1-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals slightly overbought conditions. However, Wednesday’s breakout above a short-term descending trendline and a decisive move past the $38.40 horizontal resistance marked a bullish shift for XAG/USD.
Daily chart indicators remain supportive, with positive momentum suggesting that any near-term correction may present a buying opportunity. Support now lies at the former resistance level of $38.40, with further downside likely to be contained around the previous trendline breakout zone near $38.10.
A sustained drop below the $38.00 psychological level could, however, open the door to deeper losses toward the mid-$37.00s, and potentially down to the $37.00 area. A clear break below this level may indicate a shift in market sentiment in favor of the bears.
Currently, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 75, while the RSI is at 57 — both still suggesting moderate bullish momentum.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective to support investors in effectively navigating the complexities of gold and silver trading.