Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive examination of the gold and silver markets, highlighting both fundamental and technical factors influencing current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with the insights they need to navigate these markets with confidence and clarity.
Gold prices continued their steady intraday decline during Thursday’s Asian session, sliding to the $3,135 level — marking a new low since April 10. The ongoing de-escalation of US-China trade tensions has dampened demand for the safe-haven metal. This bearish pressure is compounded by diminishing expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The 90-day trade truce between the US and China has alleviated recession fears, prompting investors to scale back bets on Fed policy easing. Consequently, US Treasury yields have been rising, further weighing on non-yielding assets like gold.
Despite these supportive macro factors, the US Dollar (USD) remains relatively range-bound as market participants await key economic releases, including the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today. Meanwhile, a generally cautious tone in global equities — typically supportive of gold — has done little to stem the metal’s decline. Overall, the lack of safe-haven demand and a technical breakdown have left gold vulnerable to further downside.
From a technical standpoint, the decisive break below the $3,200 level — along with a drop beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April’s rally — signals a bearish continuation. Momentum indicators on the daily chart, including the RSI (42) and Stochastics Oscillator (37), are beginning to trend lower, suggesting increased downside momentum.
Immediate support is seen in the $3,135–$3,133 zone. A sustained break below this region could open the door to further losses, with the next key support near the $3,100 mark. If this level fails to hold, the decline could extend toward the $3,060 area.
On the upside, initial resistance lies around the $3,168–$3,170 area, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Even if prices attempt a recovery, gains may be limited, with the $3,200 level and then $3,230 (50% Fibo. retracement) acting as major resistance levels. A break above $3,230 could prompt short-covering and potentially drive the price toward the $3,265 intermediate resistance, en route to the $3,300 psychological barrier (38.2% Fibo. level).
Silver (XAG/USD) continues to face downward pressure for the second consecutive session, trading around $31.90 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The recent pullback follows a broader correction and brings the price closer to the eight-month low of $28.00, last recorded on April 7, which could re-emerge as a key support zone if bearish momentum persists.
Momentum indicators are tilting negative, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping below the neutral 50 level to 43, suggesting building bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastics Oscillator is at 47, indicating room for further downside before entering oversold territory.
On the upside, initial resistance is expected near the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $32.46, which is nearly converging with the 50-day EMA at $32.47. A decisive break above this confluence could shift sentiment in favor of buyers and pave the way for a retest of the seven-month high at $34.59, last seen on March 28.
However, unless silver reclaims this EMA cluster convincingly, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with risks skewed to the downside.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both fundamental and technical analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to deliver a balanced perspective, equipping investors with the insights needed to navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater confidence and clarity.