Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. Our report is designed to equip investors with the insights necessary to navigate these markets with confidence.
U.S. Retail Sales in June surged by 0.6%, significantly outperforming expectations after a 0.9% decline in May and beating the anticipated 0.1% rise. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 came in at 221,000, slightly better than the expected 235,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey also improved markedly to 15.9 in July from -4 in June, surpassing market forecasts of -1. Despite some concerns about Federal Reserve independence, speculative interest remains strong after U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed rumors that he might replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell before Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Investors will closely watch Friday’s preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July, expected to rise to 61.5 from June’s 60.7.
Technically, gold is showing resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, appearing to have paused its retracement from a three-week high reached on Monday. However, oscillators on this timeframe have yet to confirm a bullish bias, suggesting caution before betting on further gains. Any upward move may face immediate resistance near the $3,342–3,343 level, with a break above this potentially leading to a retest of the $3,365–3,366 horizontal barrier. Sustained buying momentum could then set the stage for a challenge of the $3,400 round number. On the downside, weakness below the $3,320 area—or Tuesday’s weekly low—may find support around the $3,300 level, followed by the $3,282–3,283 zone, the one-week low from Tuesday. A breach below this would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward the July swing low near $3,247–3,248. The short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 58, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51.
Silver price has maintained its breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the daily chart, pushing it to a fresh 10-year high near $39.13. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) signals a bullish short-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains strong, fluctuating between 60 and 80, which reflects sustained bullish momentum. On the upside, the psychological level of $40.00 is likely to serve as a key resistance point. On the downside, the 20-day EMA will provide critical support. Additionally, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 70, while the RSI is currently at 64.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly changing bullion markets, keeping up with both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making informed investment choices. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors effectively navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading.