Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive look at the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights they need to navigate these markets with confidence.
Gold prices are under renewed selling pressure, falling to a three-week low below the $3,320 per troy ounce mark. This decline comes amid modest strength in the US dollar and a broad-based drop in US Treasury yields. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions are contributing to the pullback.
On Monday, former President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and various European officials to discuss a potential peace agreement. Following the meeting, Trump reported progress and pledged support for securing favorable conditions for Ukraine. However, he excluded Ukraine from potential NATO membership and suggested the next step should be direct talks between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Looking ahead, market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and a scheduled speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. According to Prime Market Terminal data, Fed funds futures currently price in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.
On the daily chart, gold remains under pressure with the 20-day moving average, currently around $3,348, acting as dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average—though still bullish—is beginning to lose momentum, potentially exposing the $3,300 level as the next support.
Technical indicators present mixed signals:
Momentum: Trending higher, staying above the midline.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Losing ground, currently around 45.
Stochastic Oscillator: Hovering near 40, indicating a lack of strong short-term momentum.
Overall, the technical setup suggests a cautious bearish bias, with potential for further downside unless gold can break back above the $3,348 resistance area.
Silver pulled back from a nearly two-week high last week and is currently struggling to reclaim the $38.00 level. The gold/silver ratio remains elevated, trading near the 89.00 mark, signaling relative weakness in silver compared to gold. Market sentiment appears cautious, with traders closely tracking developments in the gold market.
From a technical perspective, a confirmed break below the $37.00 level could open the door for a deeper correction. Initial support lies at $36.68, followed by a stronger support zone at $36.36.
Momentum indicators reflect a lack of clear direction:
Stochastic Oscillator: Positioned at 40, suggesting subdued short-term momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Sitting at 44, also indicating a neutral-to-bearish bias.
Overall, silver’s near-term outlook remains uncertain, with price action vulnerable to further downside unless it can reclaim and hold above the $38.00 threshold.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.