This report offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current price movements. Our goal is to equip investors with timely insights and informed perspectives to help them navigate these dynamic markets with confidence.
Uncertainty surrounding former U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continues to cast a shadow over global economic sentiment, providing additional support to precious metals. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts—amid signs that rising import tariffs are contributing to consumer price inflation—are helping to limit deeper losses in the U.S. dollar.
At the same time, a prevailing risk-on sentiment in the markets is dampening demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Despite these mixed drivers, the XAU/USD pair appears on track to post modest losses for the first time in three weeks. Traders now await key U.S. macroeconomic data for near-term direction in the North American session.
Gold has been trading in a narrow range since the beginning of the month, forming a rectangle pattern on the daily chart, reflecting indecision among market participants. Neutral daily oscillators further support a cautious approach before anticipating the next significant move.
On the downside, the $3,300 level serves as initial support. A decisive break below this threshold could open the door for a deeper decline toward the July swing low, in the $3,283–$3,251 range.
To the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the $3,368 mark, representing the top boundary of the current trading range. A clear break above this level may trigger short-covering and propel gold toward the $3,400 psychological level, with further gains likely targeting resistance around $3,421.
The short-term Stochastic Oscillator currently reads 91, indicating overbought conditions, while the RSI stands at 55, suggesting a neutral momentum bias.
Silver has confirmed a breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the daily chart, pushing the price to a fresh multi-year high near $39.13. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) reinforces the bullish near-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains elevated between 60 and 80, signaling strong bullish momentum.
Looking ahead, the psychological resistance at $40.00 will be a key level to watch. On the downside, the 20-day EMA is expected to serve as critical support. Meanwhile, the short-term Stochastic Oscillator stands at 70, and the RSI is currently at 64, both supporting a continuation of the bullish outlook.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading.