Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting key fundamental and technical drivers behind current trends. The report is designed to help investors make informed decisions in navigating these markets.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged following its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, reflecting caution over inflation risks tied to U.S. trade policy. Notably, in the updated dot plot, Fed officials signaled two rate cuts by the end of 2025, while projecting only one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027, citing concerns that inflation may remain persistently elevated.
Global risk sentiment remains fragile due to continued trade-related uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Adding to market anxiety, former President Donald Trump recently announced impending tariffs on the pharmaceutical sector. This development introduces further unpredictability ahead of the July 9 “Liberation Day” tariff deadline, which is keeping investors cautious and may support demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold prices continue to find support, as long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline. The RSI is currently stable around 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Key Support: $3,320 – A critical short-term support level. If breached, the next downside target is $3,293, which aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally.
Resistance Zone: A daily close above $3,380 is needed to trigger a move toward the $3,400 supply zone.
Indicators: The Stochastics Oscillator is currently at 38, suggesting room for upside, while the RSI remains neutral at 51.
Silver prices have eased slightly over the past week, as traders locked in profits near the multi-year highs around $37.33. This pullback reflects a healthy consolidation phase following a strong rally.
From a technical perspective, silver must reclaim and hold above the $36.25–$36.70 resistance zone to regain upward momentum in the near term. A sustained break above this range could open the door for a retest of the recent highs.
Meanwhile, the gold/silver ratio continues to trade above 93, with market participants anticipating a potential move below the 90 level, which would indicate strengthening relative performance in silver.
Stochastics Oscillator: 58 — indicating mildly bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 56 — suggesting the market remains in neutral-to-bullish territory
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both fundamental and technical analysis is essential for sound investment decision-making. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective, equipping investors with the insights needed to navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater confidence and clarity.