Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. Our report is designed to equip investors with the essential insights to navigate these markets effectively.
Gold prices are gaining positive momentum as fading optimism over US-China trade talks renews demand for safe-haven assets. Concerns over the US economy, coupled with growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, are putting pressure on the US dollar, further supporting gold. While a positive risk sentiment could limit aggressive upside moves in XAU/USD, the market remains cautiously optimistic this Thursday, closely monitoring the trade discussions between the US, China, and Japan.
The recent relief rally in global stocks, fueled by President Trump’s softened stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his more conciliatory approach to the US-China trade deal, seems to have lost steam for the time being.
The short-term outlook for gold has shifted in favor of buyers, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending upwards within positive territory. If this uptrend gains momentum, gold could reclaim the $3,400 level, paving the way for a potential retest of the record highs near $3,500.
However, should gold sellers regain control, a test of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,175 may be in the cards, especially if the price sustains a move below yesterday’s low of $3,260, followed by the $3,200 support level.
Currently, the Stochastics Oscillator stands at 64, while the RSI is at 67, indicating that the market remains in a bullish zone but could be approaching overbought conditions.
A decisive break below the current support level could trigger technical selling, pushing XAG/USD further toward the $32.40 support, with potential for a move toward the $32.10-$32.00 zone. Continued selling pressure would indicate that silver’s recent recovery from the $28.00 low, reached earlier this month, has lost momentum, opening the door for deeper declines.
On the upside, if silver breaks through the Asian session high around $33.70, it could reclaim the $34.00 level. A further upward move would target the $34.30 resistance, with the potential to test the $34.55-$34.60 range, marking the highest point since October 2024, and possibly reaching the key $35.00 psychological level.
The short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 83, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, signaling bullish momentum but approaching overbought conditions.
In the dynamic and evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making informed investment decisions. Our report aims to provide a balanced perspective, helping investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with confidence.