Today’s report offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting both fundamental and technical factors influencing current price trends. Our goal is to provide investors with clear, actionable insights to support informed decision-making in these dynamic markets.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced this week that his administration has reached a trade agreement with Japan, boosting market sentiment. Additionally, reports that the U.S. and the European Union are progressing toward a 15% trade deal have further supported investor confidence.
Despite President Trump’s persistent calls for lower borrowing costs, the markets are not pricing in an interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in July. Trump has continued to criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his stance on maintaining interest rates, even going as far as demanding his resignation.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on the upcoming release of flash PMIs, which are expected to offer fresh insights into global economic conditions and influence the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Furthermore, the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision could introduce additional market volatility and directly impact the XAU/USD pair.
Gold has continued its upward movement within a rising channel that began earlier this month, indicating a well-established short-term uptrend. Technical indicators on the daily chart remain supportive, with positive momentum suggesting that the metal is likely to find strong support near the $3,375 level—a key horizontal resistance turned support.
A sustained move above the $3,400 mark could see resistance near the $3,438 static barrier. However, increased profit-taking at higher levels could trigger a pullback toward the $3,300 area.
From a technical standpoint, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator is currently at 48, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51—both suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the near term.
Silver prices have extended their decline for a second consecutive session, weighed down by growing uncertainty surrounding potential trade agreements between the U.S. and key global partners. The prospect of new trade deals is reducing safe-haven demand, adding pressure to silver’s appeal as a defensive asset.
Notably, the U.S. and the European Union are nearing a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods—an agreement that may further dampen market anxiety and weaken demand for safe-haven assets like silver. Additionally, fading concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence are contributing to the reduced appetite for silver as a risk hedge.
From a technical perspective, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator is currently at 80, indicating overbought conditions, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, nearing the threshold of overbought territory.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion market, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater confidence and clarity.