Gold remains steady but struggles to gain recovery momentum on Monday, trading below $3,350. Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields and shifting risk sentiment following news of a new EU–U.S. trade agreement are weighing on prices. The recently announced deal reduces tariff risks, lessening demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Under the agreement, baseline tariffs on most EU goods are lowered to 15% from the previously proposed 30%, in exchange for improved market access for U.S. firms in digital services, agriculture, and clean energy.
Modeled on the U.S.–Japan trade deal signed last week, the agreement also aims to harmonize industrial standards. The U.S. dollar strengthens amid expectations of further deals ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, helping to avoid disruptive tariff escalations. Additionally, the deal establishes a framework for cooperation on critical minerals, allowing EU exporters to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act incentives in the U.S.
The daily spot gold chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting consolidation with the potential for a breakout. With XAU/USD still struggling to break above triangle resistance, bulls will need to push prices above the Fibonacci retracement level of the April low-to-high move near $3,362 to reclaim the psychological $3,400 mark.
A strong bullish surge above this level could bring the June high of $3,452 back into focus, potentially opening the door for a retest of the all-time high at $3,500. On the short-term technical indicators, the Stochastics Oscillator is at 24, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45, indicating cautious momentum.
Silver prices extended losses for a second consecutive session amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding future trade deals between the U.S. and its key partners. The prospect of new trade agreements is dampening safe-haven demand for silver. The EU and the U.S. are close to finalizing a deal to implement a 15% tariff on EU goods, reducing trade tensions.
Additionally, silver’s appeal as a safe haven may weaken further as concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence ease. On the technical side, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 58, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56, indicating a neutral to mildly bearish momentum.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and constantly evolving bullion markets, staying informed through both technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. Our report aims to offer a balanced perspective to help investors confidently navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading.