Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive view of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current price action. This report is designed to equip investors with the insights needed to navigate these markets with confidence and clarity.
Gold prices came under mild selling pressure during Thursday’s Asian session, pausing a three-day recovery from the one-month low reached earlier this week. Sentiment was partly tempered by news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, which helped ease fears of prolonged trade tensions.
In the broader macroeconomic context, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 25% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming July 29–30 policy meeting. A 25-basis-point cut in September is widely anticipated, and expectations are growing for two rate reductions by year-end. These dovish outlooks continue to weigh on the U.S. Dollar, which is attempting to recover from a three-and-a-half-year low.
While a weaker dollar generally supports gold, the current mixed sentiment may keep price action range-bound until further clarity emerges. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for stronger signals on the Fed’s rate path and the broader trajectory of the yellow metal.
Gold’s recent breakout above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) earlier this week has provided a bullish signal for short-term traders. Daily chart oscillators are gaining positive traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains tilted to the upside.
That said, any near-term pullback is likely to find initial support around the $3,330–$3,329 zone, aligned with the 200-hour SMA. A firm break below this level could trigger further technical selling, opening the door toward the key psychological support at $3,300.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near the $3,363–$3,365 region — a level tested on Wednesday and currently marking a one-week high. A decisive break above this hurdle could pave the way for a push toward the $3,400 mark. Continued strength beyond that would invalidate any short-term bearish outlook and target the next resistance in the $3,435–$3,440 range.
Momentum Indicators:
Stochastics Oscillator: 44 (neutral, building momentum)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 61 (moderately bullish)
Silver is showing mixed technical signals on the daily chart, suggesting a potential pause or consolidation in the current trend. The MACD histogram and signal line have begun to turn lower, hinting at weakening bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) remains elevated above 50 — currently at 70 — signalling that underlying strength persists and caution is warranted for bearish positions.
Should silver break below the $36.00 support level, any downside is likely to be limited in the near term. Strong horizontal support is seen around the $35.50–$35.40 region, which could attract renewed buying interest and provide a potential rebound point.
On the upside, momentum could carry silver toward the $37.30–$37.35 zone — a key resistance area representing the highest levels since February 2012. A breakout above this zone, supported by follow-through buying, would confirm the continuation of the nearly three-month uptrend and potentially open the door to further gains.
Momentum Indicators:
Stochastics Oscillator: 38 (neutral, slight upward bias)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 70 (bullish, nearing overbought)
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the ever-evolving landscape of the bullion markets, informed decision-making requires a clear understanding of both fundamental drivers and technical indicators. Our analysis aims to offer a balanced perspective, equipping investors with the insights needed to navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater confidence and precision.