Daily Gold and Silver Market Analysis- 4 July 2025

04 يوليو 2025
OTC Market Data
High
Low
Close
Previous
Change USD
Change %
Gold
3365
3312
3331
3357
-26
-0.77%
Silver
37.11
36.33
36.80
36.61
+0.19
+0.52%

Today’s analysis offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with valuable insights to navigate these markets with confidence and clarity.

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices faced selling pressure on Thursday due to profit-taking activity, following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, which showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics. This figure came in higher than both the previous month’s revised count of 144,000 (from 139,000) and the market expectation of 110,000. Additional elements of the employment report revealed that the Unemployment Rate decreased slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the labour force Participation Rate edged down to 62.3% from 62.4%. Meanwhile, annual wage growth, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, slipped to 3.7% from 3.8% in May, missing analysts’ expectations of 3.9%.

Gold

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline followed by a recovery from intraday lows amid high volatility on Thursday. Still, the pullback remained in line with this week’s breakout above the 200-hour Moving Average, which continues to serve as a key technical trigger for XAU/USD bulls. Furthermore, momentum indicators on the daily chart have started to build upward strength again, indicating that the overall trend may favour further gains. As such, any short-term dips could still be considered buying opportunities, with strong support likely near the $3,328 level. A firm break below this level, however, could trigger technical selling, potentially driving prices toward the $3,300 psychological level. On the upside, immediate resistance is expected in the $3,361–$3,375 range, above which Gold may set its sights on the $3,400 barrier. The short-term Stochastics Oscillator currently reads 60, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.

Support 3
Support 2
Support 1
Current Market Price
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
Resistance 3
3275
3300
3328
3340
3361
3375
3400

Silver

Silver made an unsuccessful attempt to break and hold above the $37.00 level, as the gold/silver ratio remains elevated above 90, highlighting relative underperformance in silver compared to gold.

Should silver regain the $37.00 level, it could pave the way for a move toward the next resistance zone between $37.35 – $37.50. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and signal line on the daily chart have turned lower, indicating a loss of upward momentum.

Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) continues to trade above the key 50 threshold, currently at 62, suggesting that bearish pressure may be limited. This calls for caution among XAG/USD bears, as downside moves could be short-lived.

Any pullback below $36.00 may be viewed as a buying opportunity, with strong horizontal support expected near $35.50.

  • Stochastics Oscillator: 71

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): 62

Support 3
Support 2
Support 1
Current Market Price
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
Resistance 3
35.50
36.00
36.40
36.80
37.00
37.35
37.50

Indicator Definitions

  • Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.

Key US Economic Reports & Events
When
Actual
Expected
Previous
US National Holiday for Independence Day

Conclusion

In the dynamic and ever-evolving landscape of the bullion markets, staying informed through a combination of technical and fundamental analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to provide a balanced perspective, helping investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater clarity and confidence.

Disclaimer: This report is intended for informational purposes only and is based on data from reputable sources. It does not constitute investment advice. ISA BULLION makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information and disclaims all liability for any losses arising from reliance on it. Users are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. ISA BULLION, including its directors, partners, officers, employees, and agents, expressly disclaims any responsibility for direct or indirect losses or damages resulting from the use of or reliance on the information contained in this report.