Today’s report offers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors influencing current price action. Our goal is to provide investors with actionable insights to support informed decision-making in navigating these dynamic markets.
Gold turned lower on Wednesday, trading in the red below $3,370 after recording gains over the previous four sessions. The current risk-on sentiment in broader markets has weighed on XAU/USD, limiting its ability to maintain bullish momentum.
While no major catalysts drove Wednesday’s pullback, the downside appears limited for now. Investors are closely watching speeches from several Federal Reserve officials later in the day, which could influence market direction.
Last Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, coupled with Tuesday’s disappointing ISM Services PMI, has heightened concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. These data points reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts as early as September. Consequently, the U.S. Dollar remains on the defensive — a dynamic that tends to support non-yielding assets like gold.
With no major economic data due from the U.S. on Wednesday, the market will remain focused on commentary from key FOMC members. In the meantime, overall risk sentiment and positioning ahead of next week’s U.S. inflation report are likely to drive short-term movements in XAU/USD.
From a technical standpoint, gold’s recent rebound off the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, supported by positive oscillators on both hourly and daily timeframes, suggests continued bullish bias.
However, the metal’s inability to break above the $3,400 resistance zone on Wednesday calls for caution. A confirmed move above this psychological barrier would open the door for further upside toward the $3,434–$3,435 resistance area. A decisive break above that could set the stage for a retest of the all-time high near the $3,500 mark, last reached in April.
On the downside, immediate support remains near the $3,350 level, aligning with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A sustained move below this level could trigger technical selling, exposing gold to further downside toward $3,322, with a potential slide to the $3,300 psychological level. Deeper losses could bring the $3,268 region — a one-month low seen last week — back into focus.
Momentum indicators:
Stochastics Oscillator: 77 (approaching overbought territory)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 55 (neutral to mildly bullish)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) remained virtually unchanged on Wednesday, trading at $37.80 per troy ounce — a marginal decline of 0.03% from Tuesday’s $37.82. Despite the stability in recent sessions, silver has posted a significant gain of 30.84% year-to-date.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver are needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, declined slightly to 89.04 on Wednesday from 89.41 the previous day.
On the technical front, the short-term Stochastics Oscillator stands at 51, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 56, suggesting neutral momentum in the current market.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.