Today’s analysis delivers a comprehensive overview of the gold and silver markets, highlighting the key fundamental and technical factors shaping current trends. This report is designed to provide investors with the insights they need to navigate these markets with confidence.
Markets remain on edge as the July 9 deadline for former President Trump’s trade deal ultimatum draws near. He has signaled the imminent dispatch of tariff letters to 12 countries that have yet to finalize trade agreements with the United States. Trump warned last week that the tariffs outlined in these letters will take effect on August 1 and could be as high as 70%.
Back in April, Trump had announced a 10% base tariff rate on most countries, along with “reciprocal” tariffs ranging up to 50%. Now, his latest threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on nations aligned with BRICS is sending fresh shockwaves through the markets. Investors are responding by shifting into the safe-haven U.S. dollar, further fueling demand for the Greenback.
Meanwhile, gold prices are under pressure from a robust U.S. employment report, which has dampened expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold has taken a hit.
Gold prices are consolidating around the $3,300 per troy ounce mark, poised for respectable weekly gains following two weeks of retracement.
Last week saw sharp intraday volatility, with a steep drop and a swift recovery from the day’s low. This week’s breakout above the 200-hour Moving Average has provided renewed support for XAU/USD bulls. Additionally, daily chart oscillators are turning upward again, suggesting the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
Any pullback is likely to find buying interest around the $3,275 level. A decisive break below this area could trigger technical selling and drive prices down toward the $3,250 round figure. On the upside, the $3,361–$3,380 zone now represents the immediate resistance. A sustained move above this barrier could open the door for a retest of the $3,400 level.
From a momentum standpoint, the short-term Stochastic Oscillator stands at 56, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 50.
Silver continues to struggle with sustaining a move above the $37.00 level, as the gold/silver ratio remains elevated above 90—a sign of lingering relative weakness in silver compared to gold.
Should silver successfully reclaim the $37.00 threshold, it would likely face immediate resistance in the $37.35–$37.68 zone. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, signaling underlying bullish momentum and warranting caution for XAG/USD bears.
Any pullback toward the $36.00 area is likely to attract buyers, with downside risks appearing limited to the horizontal support near $35.73. On the momentum front, the short-term Stochastic Oscillator stands at a high 83, indicating near-term overbought conditions, while the RSI is currently at 60—still supportive of a bullish bias.
Stochastics Oscillator: A momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a specific period. Readings above 80 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to assess market conditions. A value above 70 signals overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 indicates oversold territory.
In the dynamic and often unpredictable world of bullion markets, staying informed through a blend of fundamental and technical analysis is essential for making sound investment decisions. This report aims to deliver a balanced perspective to help investors navigate the complexities of gold and silver trading with greater clarity and confidence.