Gold Technical Report: Gold prices traded in a narrow range with negative bias and posted a small red candle after three straignt sessions of profit in a row earlier. The upmove started when 10 days Exponential Moving Average @ 1924 crossed above 200 days EMA @ 1910. These levels will work as immediate support. The 50 days EMA and 100 days EMA are at close conjunction near 1933 and prices are trading above it while inching towards 1951 TrendLine resistance. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 87 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: Silver prices declined for a consecutive day as the brief intraday high above the psychological mark of 25.00 could not hold ground. It has been on upswing from last week when it came above 200 days EMA@ 23.27 which will act as a major support now. The 100 days EMA and 50 days EMA are around same levels near @ 23.70 and 10 days EMA has already crossed above them near 24.16 which indicates bullishness.The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 80 and Relative Strength Index near 61.
Fundamental Report : The BEA released the PCE (Personal consumption expenditure) index for July 2023. The report contains the most current data on inflation and the preferred measuring benchmark by the Federal Reserve. The Bureau of Economic Analysis constructs and reports on consumer spending, personal income, and outlays. Today’s report confirmed what most Americans are fully aware of, inflation continues to be troublesome, and persistent. According to the report the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose from 4.1% to 4.2% annually. Although prices continue to rise American consumers increased their spending by 0.8% in July although personal income only gained 0.2%. The core PCE rose 0.2% month over month and weekly jobless claims fell to 228,000 down 4000. This is the largest increase in the last six months. Data indicated that the savings rate fell by 3.5% which could mean that increased consumer spending is not sustainable. The U.S. economy came out of a recessionary period and has moved into a period of strong economic growth. Currently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has estimated that GDP growth for the third quarter will be 5.9% up 0.1% from their projections on August 16. This welcome news of a robust economy in light of inflationary pressures is troublesome for the Federal Reserve. It makes their mandate of taking inflation to a 2% target much more difficult while simultaneously fulfilling their other mandate of full employment. It means that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its aggressive and restrictive monetary policy. According to the CME’s Fedwatch Tool, there is an 89% probability (down from 90% yesterday) that the Federal Reserve will not raise its benchmark rate at the September FOMC meeting. This probability indicator also suggests a 57.1% probability (from 50.1% yesterday) of a rate hike at the November meeting and a 56.1% probability of a rate hike in December up from a 49.5% probability yesterday.