Gold Technical Report: Gold made a fantastic upmove yesterday, coming out of the earlier price range. Till, the 50DMA @ 1842 is trading over 200 DMA @ 1776, the medium term trend looks intact. The long term support stands at 200 DMA below which the trend may turn bearish. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 62 and Relative Strength Index is at 70.
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices, parallel to gold prices moved up and registered its third continuous green candle. The medium term trend looks up as the prices continue to trade above 50 DMA @ 23.31. As 50 DMA has crossed above 200 DMA @ 21.00 on daily charts, gives indication of Buy on Dip. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 60 and RSI momentum near 57.
Fundamental Report: As universally expected, the FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of its policy meeting today. But the tightening cycle likely is not over yet as the FOMC noted that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.” The FOMC said that “inflation has eased somewhat,” which Chair Powell reiterated in his post-meeting press conference. But he also noted that the Committee “has more work to do” in terms of monetary tightening to bring inflation back to the FOMC’s target of 2% on a sustained basis. Powell also stated that policy will need to be restrictive for some time. We look for the FOMC to hike the fed funds target rate by 25 bps each at its next two policy meetings. That said, we do not have a high level of conviction regarding the exact amount of tightening that the Committee will need to deliver. The FOMC is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle, and future rate hikes will depend on incoming data in coming weeks and months. We have a higher degree of conviction around our belief that policy will need to remain restrictive for quite some time to bring inflation back to 2%. We forecast that the FOMC will not begin easing policy until early 2024.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell began his post-meeting press conference by reaffirming the Federal Reserve’s stance in the fight against inflation. In reiterating his comments from previous press conferences, Powell remained “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation. Powell also mentioned the need for ongoing rate increases while stressing the problems that inflation can cause for consumers and the labor market. Powell acknowledged that there have been positive signs in recent employment reports even while labor data has remained strong but said it was too early to celebrate. “It is a good thing that the disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of the labor market,” Powell said, but added that the economy was still in an “early stage” of easing inflation. He said that a decline in goods prices and data showing recent softening of the rental housing market is a “good story.” However, he said that the Fed doesn’t “see disinflation yet” in the core services part of inflation, excluding housing.