Gold Technical Report: Gold prices opened near the previous close and marched ahead respecting support near 10 Day Moving Average (DMA) @2000. Both 10 DMA and 50 DMA @1904 are trading above 200 DMA @1791 hence, the medium-term trend looks upwards. The major support stands at 200 DMA below which the trend may turn bearish. The short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 61 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 63 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices rallied further after breaking the resistance yesterday it was facing for the earlier 4 trading sessions and now trading near the 12-month high. It has strong support near the common area of 100 DMA @22.81 and 50 DMA @22.38. The medium-term trend looks bullish as both of these averages are above 200 DMA @21.15. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 88 and Relative Strength Index is near 77.
Fundamental Report: The government released the latest consumer price index numbers revealing that headline inflation (which exempts energy and food) slowed down on a month-over-month basis. Inflation gained 0.1% in March much lower than the 0.4% increase in February. The CPI index for all urban consumers increased by 5% YoY, the lowest level of inflation in almost 2 years. When compared to the inflation level of 6.2% in February it means that inflationary pressures have slowed for the ninth straight month in March primarily due to food and energy costs declining.
The reason gold had a modest advance in light of declining inflation is that gold is reacting to both levels of inflation and interest rates simultaneously. Today’s lower inflation numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve’s recent actions have had an impact on reducing levels of inflation which might allow them to factor this into their current monetary policy by raising rates to a lesser degree and pausing rate hikes sooner. Market participants have been anticipating a major pivot in the Federal Reserve from monetary tightening to monetary accommodation which would mean cutting rates rather than raising rates. This assumption has been incorrect. The Fed has been steadfast in raising rates at every FOMC meeting in March 2022. They have emphatically stated that they will keep the current rates elevated for an extended time.