Gold Technical Report: Gold played rangeboud yesterday with small volumes on account of US Bank Holiday and posted a green DOJI on first trading day of the week. Market seems to be factoring in the nervousness from heavy selling shock on 2 consecutive days in the start of the month when it has sheded almost 100 Dollars. Its also clear from the fact that the 10 DMA @ 1851 has crossed below the 50DMA @ 1863. But since 50 DMA is trading over 200 DMA @ 1775, the medium term trend looks upwards. The major support stands at 200 DMA below which the trend may turn bearish. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 34 and Relative Strength Index is at 38.
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices marched ahead strongly on a second consecutive day but closed just below the 100 DMA @ 21.92. The medium term trend lcan be considered up only if the prices move above 100 DMA. As 50 DMA @ 23.24 trades above 200 DMA @ 20.98 on daily charts, gives indication of Buy on Dip. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 49 and RSI momentum near 35.
Fundamental Report: Gold traded in a narrow range with a thin volume on Monday due to Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States. The buying was tentative as investors awaited upcoming U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path. Gains were capped by a slightly higher greenback, which pressured foreign demand for the dollar-denominated asset. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF finished at $171.28, up $0.53 or +0.31%.
The yellow metal were pressured last week as economic data showed signs of a resilient U.S. economy and a tight labor market, sparking concerns that the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer. This week, investor attention will be on Wednesday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) January meeting minutes, Thursday’s U.S. GDP data and Friday’s PCE Index inflation report. Last week, the annual inflation cooled to 6.4%. Although marking a seventh consecutive deceleration since the peak at 9.1% in June 2022, the release was marginally above the 6.2% consensus; the monthly measure, nonetheless, matched expectations at 0.5%. Thursday also welcomed the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Producer prices increased 6.0% in the 12 months to January (vs +5.6% expected, +6.5% in December) and rebounded 0.7% on the month (vs +0.2% expected, -0.2% in December). Recent data—coupled with US Fed Members airing support for a larger hike at the Fed meeting on 22 March—elevated concerns that the Fed may continue to maintain an aggressive policy tightening schedule. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures show markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of another 25 basis-point hike over a 20% probability of a 50 basis-point push. Many desks claim that the Fed is unlikely to raise by 50 basis points again during this cycle; it will likely continue in 25 basis-point increments going forward. Finally, the tail end of the week focusses on US growth data and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation: the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.