Gold Technical Report: Gold prices declined further yesterday from the day high to close below 10 DMA. During last 10 trading sessions, markets failed to close above 10 Day Moving Average (DMA) @ 1993. Both 10 DMA and 50 DMA @ 1933 are trading above 200 DMA @ 1806 hence, the medium term trend looks upwards. The major support stands at 200 DMA below which the trend may turn bearish. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 48 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30) .
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices also following the suit drifted downwards from the day high towards day close as it finds difficult to breakthrough the parallel channel of last 9 days. It has a strong support near the common area of 100 DMA @ 23.18 and 50 DMA @ 23.05. The medium term trend looks bullish as both of these averages above 200 DMA @ 21.49. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 48 and Relative Strength Index near 61.
Fundamental Report: Yesterday, US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers for the first quarter of 2023, supported the US Dollar Index to move up around 30 pips, and posting a daily positive close. The GDP Annualized eased to 1.1% from 2.0% expected and 2.6% prior but the GDP Price Index inched higher to 4.0% on an annualized basis from 3.9% prior and 3.8% market consensus. Today, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the preferred measure of inflation and wage growth used by the Federal Reserve expectations are predicting a moderate forecast for the core PCE to show an increase of inflation by 0.3% MoM and 4.5% YoY. Markets majorly awaits the FOMC rate decisions on 2-3 May for price discovery and valuation guidance. There is an overwhelming consensus that the Federal Reserve will initiate its 10th consecutive rate hike. As per CME’s FedWatch tool, there is an 87.4% probability that the Fed will announce a ¼% rate hike taking their terminal interest rate to between 5% and 5 ¼%. There remains a small faction of 12.6% of traders that believe that the Federal Reserve could take the first pause in rate hikes at every FOMC meeting since March 2022.