Gold Technical Report: Gold prices moved up yesterday, and closed above the10 Day Moving Average (DMA) @1971. Both 10 DMA and 50 DMA @1891 are trading over 200 DMA @1783 hence, the medium-term trend looks upwards. The major support stands at 200 DMA below which the trend may turn bearish. The short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 50 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices following suit, also zoomed up registering a strong green candle and closing near a two-month high. It has strong support near the common area of 100 DMA @22.52 and 50 DMA @22.18. The medium-term trend looks bullish as both of these averages are above 200 DMA @ 20.98. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 84 and Relative Strength Index is near 70.
Fundamental Report: Gold market participants who are anticipating a Fed pivot from raising rates to cutting rates have been largely disappointed. It is accepted by analysts and economists that the Federal Reserve will continue to either raise rates or pause rates at some point soon. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that professional traders are almost split between anticipating a ¼% rate hike or a pause in interest rate hikes at the next FOMC meeting which begins around a month from today and concludes on May 3. According to the CME’s probability indicator, there is a 43.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause its hawkish monetary policy of raising rates at each FOMC meeting, and a 56.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by ¼%. Yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool indicated that there was a 67.4% probability that the Fed would pause rates with a 37.6% probability of a ¼% rate hike. This is a pretty dramatic shift in the last 24 hours. The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) will be released today. Currently, forecasters believe that inflation levels will remain elevated. If the PCE does remain elevated as currently predicted it could strengthen the resolve of the Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than take a pause.