Daily Report – 06 October 2022

06 October 2022
OTC Market Data
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Gold Technical Report: After the massive fall earlier, last week gold prices recorderd a green candle everyday suggesting buoyancy in the market. Carrying ahead the same trend ahead this week, it has crossed over the main level of $1680, and now the medium term trend points upwards. They may take some time to hover around and then convincingly cross 50 DMA on daily charts. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 92 and RSI momentum is 57.

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Silver Technical Report: After the massive fall earlier, last week, silver prices signaled to retrace back.The prices are currently hovering around  200 PMA on weekly charts. However if the prices break earlier bottom and major support at 17.60 , it will change the medium term trend into negative. On upside, crossing of 200 DMA at 21.89 will change the main trend to positive. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 85 and RSI momentum near 63.

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Fundamental Report: Despite the improving market sentiment, a sense of caution continues to linger in the air as investors brace for another busy week for global markets. Over the last few trading sessions, gold hit a bottom at approximately $1621 and gained well over $100 in a short time. In the same way that gold bottomed on Wednesday, September 28, concurrently the dollar peaked on the same day hitting its highest value in 20 years. Today the dollar continues to fall with the dollar index currently around 110.80.There  is no denying that the global markets have entered an exciting new phase in monetary policy as central bankers across the world ramped up their fight against rapidly surging inflation. After being criticized for being slow to recognize inflation, the Federal Reserve and its central-banking peers have embarked on their most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s. As a result, there’s really nothing historical you can point to for what’s going on in markets today – we are seeing multiple standard deviation moves across every asset class – presenting savvy traders with back to back money-making opportunities, almost on a daily basis. Aggressive moves specifically from the Fed in recent months have dramatically strengthened the dollar – raising concerns among leading Wall Street economists that the dollar will be the next asset bubble to burst. According to Morgan Stanley – “such U.S dollar strength has historically always ended in some kind of financial or economic crisis” and that’s the exact direction we are heading in again. In fact, it was against that strong dollar backdrop that the Bank of England was forced to revert back to unprecedented “Quantitative Easing” measures, to avert a full-blown global financial meltdown. With the Fed and ECB hiking aggressively into a weakening economy – the big question is who will be next to switch on their money printing machines and revert back to quantitative easing again? The numerous speeches from Fed officials should keep market players well occupied ahead of the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday. If hawks dominate the scene once again, this could fuel bets over more aggressive rate hikes by the Fed. Alternatively, any hint of more caution may stimulate speculation around the central bank adopting a softer stance on rates resulting in a weaker dollar. Given how markets remain highly sensitive to anything relating to rate hikes, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report could set the tone for markets this month. According to Bloomberg, consensus is expecting jobs growth to slow from 315k in August to 250k in September. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7% while wage growth is seen hitting 0.3%. If the jobs data exceeds market expectations, this boosts the chances around the Fed firing another monetary bazooka in the form of a 75-basis point hike. Alternatively, a disappointing report may reduce the odds of another super-sized move, ultimately weakening the dollar while supporting equity and commodity bulls.

Key US Economic Reports & Events
Unemployment Claims
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