Gold Technical Report: Gold witnessed rangebound price action yesterday with tepid profit booking on the back of a heightened volatility this week earlier when as it crossed above 2100 mark upside and also drifted down below 2050 at the close on the same day. The prices remained buoyant throughout last week continuing the trend of earlier week. It has maintained the support of 10 days Exponential Moving Average and had crossed above the 2000 mark convincingly. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 35 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: Silver prices also slid further for a third consecutive day. It has started decline on massive profit booking after it hit 25.88 intraday high on Monday. The prices are currently trading below and struggling to reach 25.00 mark which may signal continuation of bullish trend. Currently its trading below 10 days Exponential Moving Average @ 24.33. If strength persists, it can try to reach May Highs of 26.00 mark as a new target. The Short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 21 and Relative Strength Index near 49.
Fundamental Report: As market participants begin to look at Fed action next year, there is an 85.9% probability that the Fed will continue to maintain current rates with a 12.1% probability that they will cut rates by ¼%. However, the CME’s probability tool is forecasting that by March there is a 53.4% probability that the Fed will initiate their first rate cut by ¼% and a 6.8% probability the Fed will cut rates by ½% during the March 2023 FOMC meeting. Analysts and market participants are overwhelmingly optimistic that the Federal Reserve has ended its quantitative tightening (QT) cycle, which included aggressive rate hikes. This series of QT began in March 2022. Currently, the Fed’s benchmark rate is between 5 ¼% and 5 ½%. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain its current interest rate level at the December 13 FOMC meeting. The optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin to unwind the rate hikes that have occurred since March 2022 has been fueling the recent gains in gold. However, the uncertainty has created extreme volatility in which we have seen gold prices spike tremendously as witnessed by last Friday’s gains as well as Monday’s spike to a new record high and subsequent selloff.