Gold Technical Report: Gold posted a smart performance on Friday to end the week. But the market seems to be factoring little nervousness from the last two weeks it has shed almost 50 Dollars. It’s also clear from the fact that the 10 DMA @1853 has crossed below the 50 DMA @1862. But since 50 DMA is trading over 200 DMA @ 1774, the medium-term trend looks upwards. The major support stands at 200 DMA below which the trend may turn bearish. The short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 25 and Relative Strength Index is at 40.
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices also inched up further on a second consecutive day but closed just below the 100 DMA @21.90. The medium-term trend can be considered up only if the prices move above 100 DMA. As 50 DMA @23.31 trades above 200 DMA @20.97 on daily charts, gives an indication of Buy on Dip. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 33 and the RSI momentum is near 35.
Fundamental Report: The headline event in early trading last week was US inflation. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), annual inflation cooled to 6.4%. Although marking a seventh consecutive deceleration since the peak at 9.1% in June 2022, the release was marginally above the 6.2% consensus; the monthly measure, nonetheless, matched expectations at 0.5%. Thursday also welcomed the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Producer prices increased 6.0% in the 12 months to January (vs +5.6% expected, +6.5% in December) and rebounded 0.7% on the month (vs +0.2% expected, -0.2% in December). Recent data—coupled with US Fed Members airing support for a larger hike at the Fed meeting on 22 March—elevated concerns that the Fed may continue to maintain an aggressive policy tightening schedule. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures show markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of another 25 basis-point hikes over a 20% probability of a 50 basis-point push. Many desks claim that the Fed is unlikely to raise by 50 basis points again during this cycle; it will likely continue in 25 basis-point increments going forward. Finally, the tail end of the week focuses on US growth data and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation: the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.