Gold Technical Report: Gold prices fluctuated around psychological levels of 1900, yesterday but registered a DOJI candle on daily charts suggesting indecision in the market. It tried to target 10 days Exponential Moving Average @ 1923 but failed. Main support level is near 200 days EMA @ 1864 and main resistance level is near 50 days EMA @ 1951 to trade stronger. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 19 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices slipped downwards after an unsuccessful attempt to cross above 10 days EMA @ 22.91. The main support is near 200 days EMA @ 22.38 and main resistance level is near 50 Days EMA @ 23.52 to show strength. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 22 and Relative Strength Index near 39.
Fundamental Report: The Gold reached a three-month low this week as the outlook for the Fed’s policy is still hawkish while inflation has declined significantly. This article looks at possibilities for the yellow metal around important upcoming data, notably personal consumption expenditures later today. Comments by central bankers including Jerome Powell this week were mostly quite hawkish, with Dr Powell reiterating that two more hikes of the funds rate are likely this year. The large majority of participants – around 82% – expects a single hike by the Fed at its next meeting on 26 July, but the majority also still expects 5.25-5.5% to be the terminal rate this cycle with the first cut in March 2024 according to CME FedWatch Tool. The rate of headline inflation has continued to drop more quickly than expected. That makes PCE, to be released on June 30 at 12.30 GMT, a particularly important release. As the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation, PCE can give more information about what the next steps could be for rates. Annual non-core PCE could decline to 3.9% according to some expectations while the core figure for the same is expected to hold at 4.7%. Either way, the funds rate is higher than all of the main measures for inflation in the USA except for core CPI. Combined with likely further rate hikes and there being no clear sign of recession yet, the fundamental situation for gold is negative.